In this pitch deck, Axel Andersson and Marius Fischer present a buy recommendation
on TransMedics, a disruptive medtech company redefining organ transplantation.
The pitch won the inaugural Swedish University Pitch Competition of 2025 judged
by Danske Bank. Following a Q3 miss, the departure of its long-tenured CFO, and a
dubious short report by Scorpion Capital, the stock has sold off 67%, going from a premium
to peers to trading at a ~60% discount, setting the stage for a compelling re-rating for what
is a fast-growing Company with a strong value proposition and long runway.
Investment Thesis
● Firstly, TMDX offers a win-win-win solution that benefits all stakeholders,
making adoption a no-brainer.
● Secondly, the Company has three distinct growth levers to drive sustained +20%
case CAGR through 2030: (1) converting low-penetration centers into high-utilization
users, (2) expanding TAM by allowing access to previously unusable organs, essentially
fueling its own growth, and (3) Inceasing adoption among non-users as the value proposition
becomes increasingly undeniable.
● Thirdly, while historical growth has been almost entirely liver-driven, upcoming FDA
approvals for next-gen lung and heart devices in Q4 2025 are set to materially expand
the company’s runway for growth.