In this write-up, senior analyst Edvin Egnell recommend a long buy on Lundin Mining
(LUMI), a mid-tier copper-focused producer undergoing a strategic transformation into a
pure-play growth platform aligned with long-term electrification trends. The divestment
of European zinc operations and the development of the Josemaria project mark a
critical inflection point in the Company’s value trajectory. Despite a strong pipeline of
long-life assets and increased copper leverage, the Company trades at just 0.6x P/NAV.
This valuation discrepancy is primarily due to legacy concerns about asset
concentration and the exclusion of Josemaria from many models due to pre-production
status. As copper production is set to increase by ~40% by 2029 and global supply
constraints persist, the Company presents a compelling opportunity for re-rating. A
P/NAV-based valuation justifies a target price of 16.7 CAD, representing an upside of
64%.
Investment Highlights
● Strategic Growth Inflection Underappreciated by the Market
● Positioned to Capitalize on a Structural Copper Shortage
● Re-Rating Opportunity Driven by De-Risking and Asset Diversification