Category: <span>Trading and Quantitative Research</span>

Systematic Drivers

In this investigation conducted with OQAM, the analysts Jaroslavs Grigoluns, Merriea Mathew, and Elliot Koujaharov Sjögren, analysed which factors drive the spread differences of bonds issued in both EUR and SEK. By examining a large number of both company-specific and macroeconomic features with different machine learning methods, the project distilled the most influential contributions to the historical spreads.

Featuring NOK

In this project supervised by SEB, the analysts Markus Lexander, Paulina Ibek, and Philip Mattisson investigate factors that predict the exchange rate of the Norwegian Krone, EURNOK. By employing ML techniques such as feature importance and random forest in conjunction, the investigation focused on the predictive power of variables such as the price of the Brent oil, EURSEK, the DAX, among others, on the future price of NOK on various time horizons.
The results indicate that different combinations of the selected features have the best predictive power on different time scales. The Martingale model theory of price movements was found to hold better on short (minutes) timescales, while Brent-price driven trends dominated on longer (days) time horizons.
The developed model showed promising results and predictive abilities regarding a company’s credit risk. However, the limitation of the dataset to the Nordic market significantly impacted the predictive power of the model. While the hypothesis remained unchallenged by the investigation, the need for a wider scope of considered companies is evident.

Predicting Credit Ratings

In this report supervised by OQAM, the analysts Niklas Gälldin, Pontus Neumann, and Oscar Näslund Cuesta explore the possibility of predicting public Nordic companies’ credit ratings using machine learning models. By utilizing historical quarterly financial data, stock data, and Moody’s historical ratings, the hypothesis is that changes in credit ratings can be predicted ahead of their publication, providing a competitive edge.
The developed model showed promising results and predictive abilities regarding a company’s credit risk. However, the limitation of the dataset to the Nordic market significantly impacted the predictive power of the model. While the hypothesis remained unchallenged by the investigation, the need for a wider scope of considered companies is evident.