In this fundamental analysis report, analysts Filip Källenfors and Elin Persson present an investment case for Enersense, a Finnish energy infrastructure services company delivering large-scale energy projects across the Nordics and Baltics. Between 2020 and 2023, Enersense expanded into non-core segments in pursuit of becoming an energy provider, which resulted in compressed margins and has left the Company trading at a 30.4% discount to peers based on 2027E EV/EBITDA. However, following the divestment of unprofitable non-core segments, the appointment of new management, and a strategic shift towards the growing, higher-margin Power segment, Enersense’s earnings outlook has improved. An equally weighted DCF and peer valuation implies a 48.7% upside to the current share price.
Investment Thesis
- Sales Mix Shift as a Margin Catalyst: Through its high-margin Power segment, Enersense is well-positioned to benefit from increased investments in energy infrastructure. As the sales mix shifts towards the Power segment, Enersense’s margins are expected to improve, with the Group EBITDA margin forecast to increase from 6.7% to 7.4% by 2028E.
- New Management Executing a Credible Turnaround: A new CEO and CFO bring important legitimacy for a previously struggling company. Together, they have a strong track record in service revenue and financing, as well as close ties to the Finnish industrial sector.
- A Transparent Profile Unlocks a Compressed Multiple: Following the divestments in 2025, the underlying profitability of the core segments will become visible in 2026. As a result, the justification for the current valuation discount should fade.