In this fundamental analysis report, analysts Oskar Larsson and Hampus Fredriksson analyze Acast
AB, the world’s largest independent podcast advertising marketplace. Acast connects over 140,000
creators with more than 3,300 advertisers through a data-driven, AI-enabled platform. Despite flat
to declining listening volumes following Apple’s iOS17 update, Acast has successfully decoupled
revenue growth from audience growth by increasing monetization efficiency, with ARPL expanding
by 30% in Q3-25. Supported by structurally improving margins and operating leverage, revenue is
expected to grow at a CAGR of 15% from 2025 to 2028, while EBIT margins are forecast to expand
to 8.8% by 2028E. Based on a 75/25 weighted DCF and peer valuation, a target price of SEK 43.8 per
share is implied, corresponding to an upside of 34%.
Investment Thesis
● ARPL-driven growth decouples revenue from listener volumes through inventory optimization
and improved sell-through
● Structural margin expansion following the iOS17 cost reset enables scalable, high-margin
monetization
● U.S. market expansion unlocks operating leverage supported by under-monetized inventory and
rising sell-through rates