New Countries, New Opportunities

In this financial analysis, analysts Henrik Telenius and Hugo Johnson take a deep-dive into Midsona, a Swedish developer and marketer of various healthy foods and snacks. The company have recently consolidated their Nordic market and is now expanding to Germany and southern Europe. In 2019 Midsona had a turnover of 3 081,0 MSEK and our analysts estimate sales for 2021E to be 4 209,6 MSEK. The main driver of the 36,6% increase is the expansion to Germany and with a target EV/EBIT multiple of 21,4x for 2021E, our analysts estimate an upside of 77,0% and a price per share of 100,3 SEK (from 56,7 SEK).

Investment highlights:

  • Midsona have shown in the past that they are capable of taking market shares (12,6% market share 2016 of the organic packaged food market in the Nordics to 17,7% in 2019) and will be able to do so in Germany as well.
  • Increase in EBIT margin from 5,5% in 2019 to 8,6% in 2021E from synergies from their previous acquisitions in the Nordics and their new acquisitions in the rest of Europe.
  • Midsona’s well established brands and recurring customers bring steady cash flows and their relatively higher debt compared to their peers (net debt/EBITDA of 4,7x in 2019 and 4,4x in 2021E), will because of this not a problem in the future.

To get the full elaborate view on the case, please see the report below:

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