In this report, analysts Anna-Brita Hunter Nilsson and Viktor Gautvik present a BUY
recommendation on Dino Polska, a founder-led and vertically integrated Polish grocery
retailer. The report argues that the market is misinterpreting temporary margin pressure
as structural while underestimating Dino’s potential for sustained like-for-like growth,
self-funded store expansion and margin recovery. Based on a DCF valuation, the
analysts derive a target price of PLN 48.36, implying an upside of 62.2% from the
current share price of PLN 29.74.
Investment Thesis
- Rising rural wages, normalising food inflation, a broader product offering and the
continued maturation of Dino’s store base are expected to support annual likefor-like
growth of 6–7%. A significant share of the network remains below
maturity, providing an additional source of growth independent of new openings
and pricing. - Self-Funded Store Rollout Creates a Long Compounding Runway
With approximately 3,100 stores compared with a long-term ambition of more
than 5,000, Dino remains early in its expansion journey. The Company is
expected to open 350–410 stores annually, with each new store delivering an
estimated 26% cash-on-cash return and a payback period of approximately four
years. - Vertical Integration Protects Margins and Strengthens the Moat
Dino controls key parts of its value chain through in-house construction, meat
production, logistics and fuel infrastructure. This supports lower store
development costs,strengthens its fresh-food proposition and limits exposure to
external rent and supplier inflation, creating a structural cost advantage over
less-integrated competitors.