NCR Atleos

In this pitch deck, analysts Rahil Hussain and Joel Persson present a comprehensive
analysis of NCR Atleos, a leading global provider of ATM infrastructure and managed
services following its spin-off from NCR Voyix. While investor focus has remained on
short-term hardware cyclicality, perceptions of a structurally declining ATM market, and
elevated leverage at separation, the market has overlooked Atleos’ shift toward a more
recurring, service-driven business mix, its scale-driven cost advantages, and disciplined
capital allocation strategy. As the Company continues to deleverage and accelerate the
transition toward ATM-as-a-Service (ATMaaS), the setup supports a base case total upside
of 48% and a two-year IRR of 22%.

Key Takeaways
● Scale-driven cost advantage: Atleos’ global OEM and services footprint enables
customers to reduce operating costs while generating high incremental margins,
creating substantial operating leverage as volumes scale.
● ATMaaS-driven growth and margin expansion: The shift from legacy ATM ownership
models toward long-term ATMaaS contracts materially expands Atleos’ addressable
market and improves returns, with contracts delivering meaningfully higher IRRs and
more stable cash flows.
● Capital allocation as a catalyst: Ongoing deleveraging, refinancing potential, and a
$200m share buyback program support EPS growth and reduce the valuation
discount applied at the spin-off, paving the way for a potential re-rating.