In this pitch deck, analysts Gustav Wisenius, Gustav Bartholdsson, and Oscar Isacsson present the investment case for B&M European Value Retail. As the UK’s leading discount retailer, B&M combines a capital-light model with sub 13-month store paybacks and sector-leading prices. Despite market fixation on near-term like-for-like weakness and macro headwinds, analysts see a structurally resilient business with accelerating store rollout, and defensible gross margins. With continued capital returns and a re-rating supported by fundamental outperformance, the base case implies 115% total upside and a clear path to multiple re-rating in the coming years.
Investment Thesis
● UK target raised to 1,200 stores; France scaling with strong economics and room to more than double penetration
● General merchandise and Garden Centers mitigate FMCG headwinds; France adds structural margin uplift
● Store acquisitions at distressed prices (e.g. Wilko) accelerate low-capex growth and market share gains
● Share trades at ~5.2x EV/EBITDA and 8.4x EV/FCF (2026E), well below peers despite stronger unit economics, cash generation, and reinvestment profile