Chemometec

In this fundamental analysis report, analysts William Wastenson and Neo Fuchs take a closer look at
ChemoMetec, a Danish medtech company supplying cell counting instruments to pharmaceutical
and biotech companies. ChemoMetec operates a razor-and-blade business model where every cell
count requires a consumable purchased exclusively from the Company, generating recurring revenue
that accounts for 71% of sales FY24/25 at estimated gross margins of 96-98%. The share price has
declined approximately 50% following a temporary US government shutdown and two subsequent
guidance reductions, yet the recurring revenue base continued growing throughout. The market
remains focused on near-term disruption while the analysts see three overlooked drivers. A new
fully automated production platform that generates an estimated 8-9x more recurring revenue per
placement at gross margins of 96-98%, driving revenue from DKK 496M to an estimated DKK 815M
by FY27/28. The resulting mix shift toward consumables expands EBIT margins from 48% to 54%,
accelerating FCFF growth from DKK 139M to DKK 265M. This platform opens a market approximately
4x the cell therapy segment ChemoMetec dominates, where two dominant players are exiting on
fixed regulatory deadlines. An equally weighted DCF and peer valuation, based on a target multiple
of 21.9x 2027E EV/EBIT, yields a DKK 509 target price, implying 38.3% upside.

Investment Thesis
● Accelerating Adoption of a New Production Platform
● Recurring Revenue Per Placement Driving Margin Expansion
● Larger Market Opening on Fixed Regulatory Deadlines