In this fundamental analysis report, analysts Linus Melin and Vilhelm Ruhr provide an in-depth
analysis of Safeture, a Swedish SaaS microcap operating within people risk management. After a period
of stagnant growth driven by prolonged sales lead times and a weak European market, Safeture is
positioned for a comeback. The growth will be driven by normalized lead times, an improving market
and strong underlying industry growth, expected to grow at a CAGR of 15% through 2035. With nearly
100% recurring revenues, ARR of SEK 57m, a net revenue retention of 108% and a churn rate of just
2%, the business exhibits strong fundamental quality that is not reflected in the current valuation of
2.5x EV/ARR. Supported by significant operating leverage, profitability within reach and growth
expected to rebound, the analysts derive a target price of SEK 9.1 per share, implying an upside of
107.9%.
Investment Thesis
● Rebound in growth as normalized lead times and easing European market restore top-line momentum.
● High operating leverage drives rapid margin and cash flow expansion once growth returns.
● Buyout optionality provides additional upside optionality amid elevated sector M&A and depressed valuation.