In this pitch deck, analysts Samuel Ullmann, Svante Jansson and Fredrik Lyrvall deliver an in-depth
analysis of Vistry Group PLC (“Vistry”), the leading provider of affordable mixed tenure homes in the
UK. With the recent transition into a full-on capital-light partnerships model, Vistry is set to release
and distribute upwards of GBP 1bn in tied up capital while also achieving an estimated return on
invested capital of 43.5% in 2026E. Due to the transition not yet being fully priced in and Vistry
continued to be valued on book value, the analysts derive a target price of 2,502 GBX, equivalent to an
upside of 107.7% or a five-year ARR of 24.3%.
Key takeaways
• The transition to a partnerships model enables higher ROIC through capital light housebuilding
• Vistry’s strong know-how and the complexity in operating a partnerships model provides a moat
• Undersupplied housing market creates a floor for revenue growth